After analyzing Thailand’s likely future situation, I have come to the conclusion that regardless of who wins, the people and country of Thailand will surely lose because Thailand’s future now does not depend on the victory of one colour over another, but on the establishment of Thailand’s future foundation. Are we ready for this?
We need to step out of this conflict and look to the future because our current fight is merely a war fought between two positions of power using the masses as a power base. However, no matter who comes to power, Thailand will return to its previous cycle as a nation driven not by “nation builders” but by “national electors,” ruling Thailand just as ineffectively as most governments of the past have, paying scant attention to national issues and to long term human need.
Bringing Economics Theory and Production Function together to analyze mankind's history from prehistoric times to the present and now into the future, I have seen world society shift in wave movements in which seven waves have existed in total. Those countries or organizations who will ride the wave first will win and the others will lose.
At "zero wave depth" was "Roaming Society," an age marked by the important skill of hunting, whose leaders were therefore expert hunters. This was followed by "first wave" "Agricultural Society" in which people started settling down and cultivating. The important factor for this age was land; the leader of this age as a person with the ability to fight and expand territory. After that "the second wave" or "Industrial Society" started, being marked by the Industrial Revolution in England. The necessary skills for this industrial age came from the ability to produce, commercialize and invest, enabling England to win influence over the world at that time. The next age was "the third wave" period of the "Information Society," in which information began to become more complex and complicated. Consequently, whoever had the ability to access and manage information was the leader of this age (for example, Bill Gates).
Now the world has come to "the fourth wave" "Knowledge-Based Society," giving importance to whoever can innovate or make the most use of their knowledge in living or production. The United States has been a winner in this period due to the American ability to create a lot of innovations.
Now, we must choose whether to be a winner or a loser.
If Thailand continues in its current direction, we will move backwards and lose. In the period of King Rama the Fifth, Thailand and Japan were developed to almost the same level, but not so long afterwards, Japan overtook Thailand very significantly. After the Korean war period, Korea was poorer than Thailand, and again about twenty years later they have left us behind. We have kept moving backwards and must compete with Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia. Currently, these countries are very much more advanced than Thailand is now. At this stage, Vietnam does not have to compete with Thailand at all because we will clearly lose in the near future. Eventually, our next competitors will be Cambodia and Laos. If Thailand is willing to move forward and benefit from the global trend, we will need to ride the "fourth wave" into the Knowledge-based economic society by "Rebuilding Thailand" (or literally "Patiwattana Prates") urgently. "Rebuilding Thailand" ("Patiwattana Prates") is terminology I have created, meaning to re-prosper Thailand in a sustainable and comprehensive way.
It will require the large-scale establishment of a foundation for Thailand- covering all systems countrywide, all issues and all dimensions, whether, for example, in education, health care, occupation, poverty, infrastructure, environment, garbage disposal or polluted water treatment. "Rebuilding Thailand' will compose of developments in every area of Thai society:
A set paradigm for "Rebuilding Thailand" in order to lead Thailand to a desired goal which is to be a country with a knowledge based economy and developed in all dimensions - with economic prosperity and sustainability, being stable and free politically, enjoying diversity and cohesion in society. We need the ideologies of a nation, the vision of a nation, the policies of a nation, and the agendas of a nation for the benefit of our nation. All these must be known by the Thai people. The picture must be clear in terms of which way we are going and for what purpose. For example, we can establish the vision for this nation to become a developed country by 2030, where there are no poor people in Thailand (besides they are willing to be free). Thailand can reach top success in alternative energy, improve Thai bureaucracy to be among the world's top ten countries for efficiency, have the next generation fluent in three languages or be among the top twenty countries worldwide for the number of registered patents.
Application of the "4 R Principle" for "Rebuilding Thailand" To do this, all issues in the country could be categorized into four categories Firstly, into various systems, policies or measures, etc, that are fairly acceptable but need "Restoration" (or "Patisangkorn" in Thai) before they can be used properly again. Secondly, "Reinventing" (or "Patirangsan" in Thai) all components that are good but misarranged. Thirdly, "Reformation" (or "Patiroop" in Thai) is needed for things that are good in principle, but not correctly formatted. The last category is "Revolution" (or "Patiwatt in Thai) not referring to overthrow, but to things that need to be completely changed.
Thailand is now at the crossroads. As Thai citizens, we should ask ourselves whether we want to be the citizens of a winner country or a loser country. If we want to be winners, we should push “Rebuilding Thailand”forward. We need someone to lay the country’s foundation down as King Rama the Fifth did in the past so that we can enter the fourth wave as soon as possible.
Dr Kriengsak Chareonwongsak
Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School , Harvard University
kriengsak@kriengsak.com, kriengsak.com, drdancando.com
Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School , Harvard University
kriengsak@kriengsak.com, kriengsak.com, drdancando.com
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